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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their new city leader this election day, in a race that will decide who runs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has turned into an acrimonious face-off, marked by alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with voters' anger at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani personally. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent elected, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has faced difficulties in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a DSA gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd